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21 Jan 2025

Canadian price growth edged lower on tax holiday in December – RBC Economics

The tick lower in inflation in December to 1.8% was above our own assumption for a 1.5% increase, but largely due to a smaller than assumed reduction in prices from the temporary GST/HST holiday in December, and was still slightly below market expectations for a 1.9% reading, RBC Economics' Assistant Chief Economist Nathan Janzen notes.

Risks on price growth tilted to the downside

"Controlling for the tax distortion, price growth was mixed but is still consistent with further signs of underlying easing in price growth." 

"The CPI data will be impacted by the tax holiday into February, but a weakened Canadian GDP and elevated unemployment rate (with the potential for protectionist U.S. trade policy to make both worse) is pushing inflation expectations from businesses and households lower."

"That leaves the risks on price growth tilted to the downside and argue for further BoC interest rate cuts."

Jan 21, 2025

USD/CNH: Consolidation after breaking out – OCBC

USD/CNH fell sharply below 7.26 at one point after Trump announced there was no immediate plans for tariffs and calls for further study. USD/CNH was last seen at 7.2712 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
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Jan 21, 2025

Mexican Peso drops on Trump’s tariff threats

The Mexican Peso erased some of Monday’s gains on US President Donald Trump’s inauguration day after the latter threatened to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada as soon as February 1.
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